The headline hides very different business exposures
Seventy-two per cent of UK businesses reported some degree of concern about energy prices in late September, according to the Office for National Statistics' Business Insights and Conditions Survey published on 8 October. It was the highest share recorded since the question was introduced in March 2026. Among accommodation and food service businesses, the proportion reached 91%. These are measures of concern, not a count of firms experiencing a specified bill increase.
The difference matters as businesses plan winter budgets. A hotel, a factory and a consultancy face different electricity needs, purchasing terms and opportunities to reduce consumption. A national survey cannot determine the impact on an individual firm's cash flow. The useful starting point is the share of revenue consumed by energy and the date at which fixed-price contracts expire.
Fuel and power should be modelled separately
The survey also found that 73% of businesses expressed some concern about rising fuel prices, the highest share since the question was introduced in May. In transport and storage, 60% were very concerned. Road haulage and distribution are especially sensitive to the cost of fuel, although contract escalation clauses can shift part of that risk.
Electricity and fuel prices need not change at the same speed for a particular firm. A manufacturer may be on a fixed power contract while a delivery operator buys fuel at more variable prices. Procurement managers should therefore test separate scenarios for electricity, gas, diesel and freight rather than assume one general inflation rate applies to every input.
Supply-chain anxiety can create costs before disruption arrives
Among businesses with at least ten employees, 48% reported concern about at least one supply-chain factor over the following year. The figure was broadly stable from August but 17 percentage points higher than in September 2025. International conflict was cited by 32% and shipping disruption by 21%. These responses describe perceived risks, not confirmed interruptions at all the firms surveyed.
Businesses may respond by holding extra inventory, finding backup suppliers or paying for faster transport. Such resilience measures carry financing and storage costs even when deliveries are uninterrupted. A rational decision requires comparing the cost of protection with the likelihood and commercial damage of a missed shipment.
A record concern measure is not a price forecast
The ONS describes BICS as official statistics in development. The survey is voluntary and uses weighted estimates subject to sampling and non-sampling uncertainty. Its questions change over time. A record since March should not be presented as a record across the entire history of UK business or the energy crisis.
Concern does not automatically produce price increases. Firms can absorb costs, reduce hours, change products, improve efficiency or renegotiate contracts. The extent of pass-through to customers depends on demand and competition. It is therefore inappropriate to turn the 72% figure into a forecast for the consumer price index.
The next evidence to watch
The next BICS release is scheduled for 22 October. It should help show whether anxiety persisted into October, while inflation and business-output data will provide evidence about actual economic outcomes. For hospitality, trading volumes and margin pressure will matter as much as the proportion of respondents concerned about bills.
Managers should track energy spend as a share of turnover, contract expiry dates, fuel surcharges and the cost of alternative supply routes. The survey establishes that energy and logistics risks are widely felt. It does not establish that every business is experiencing the same financial shock.